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Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment as one of the largest option expirations of the year looms. On December 26, Bitcoin options with a notional value of approximately $23.8 billion are set to expire, a scale large enough to reshape market structure, volatility, and risk positioning.
According to on-chain analyst Murphy, this expiration includes quarterly and annual contracts, alongside multiple structured products tied to institutional strategies. The simultaneous settlement of these instruments is expected to trigger a broad position unwinding and risk recalibration across the derivatives market.
Murphy notes that Bitcoin’s price action may remain artificially compressed until the expiration date, but warns that volatility and directional uncertainty are likely to surge immediately afterward, once structural constraints are removed.
Options Data Reveals a Narrow Price Corridor
Current options positioning shows a heavy concentration near Bitcoin’s spot price:
14,674 BTC in put options at $85,000
18,116 BTC in call options at $100,000
Such large positions are typically associated with ETF hedging desks, corporate Bitcoin treasuries, family offices, and institutional long-term holders, rather than retail traders.
The strong demand for $85,000 puts signals robust downside protection, indicating that large players are actively hedging against a potential drawdown. Meanwhile, the significant $100,000 call exposure, although often interpreted as bullish, tells a more nuanced story.
Analysts suggest these calls reflect yield optimization strategies, where institutions sacrifice upside beyond $100K in exchange for stable cash flow and controlled risk, rather than positioning for explosive upside.
Structural Pressure Until December 26
Together, these positions create a defined options corridor between $85,000 and $100,000. Within this range:
$100K acts as implicit resistance
$85K serves as passive downside support
Price action inside the range remains choppy and volatile
This structure is expected to influence Bitcoin’s behavior until expiration. Once the options roll off, the market may experience a sharp repricing event, potentially releasing suppressed volatility in either direction.
